| 摘要: |
| 基于现有的普查直接多报估计量，在二重抽样调查下，对样本小区登记人口数梳理分类，构建基于正确登记概率的普查直接多报估计量，以解决前者由于计数对象不确定而造成的多报虚增问题。创新之处在于:构建样本小区下登记人口数的指标体系，提出基于正确登记概率的普查直接多报估计量、发生重报估计量和重报估计量，并将普查直接多报估计量与基于正确概率的普查直接多报估计量进行比较研究。理论研究和实证研究得出：普查直接多报估计值及抽样标准误差都高于基于正确登记概率的普查直接多报估计值及抽样标准误差，〖JP2〗普查直接多报估计量虚增了普查多报人口数，基于正确登记概率的普查直接多报估计量精度更高。 |
| 关键词: 抽样调查 质量评估调查 普查多报 |
| DOI： |
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| Estimation of Erroneous Enumerations in Population Census Based on Correct Registration Probability |
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WU Ting，HU Gui-hua1,2
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1.Wanzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 404000,China;2.2.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the existing census direct estimator of erroneous enumerations, this paper classifies the registered population in the sample area under the double sampling survey, and constructs the census direct erroneous enumerations based on the correct registration probability, so as to solve the problem of erroneous enumerations and false increase caused by the uncertainty of the target population. The innovation lies in constructing the index system of the number of registered populations in the sample area, putting forward the direct erroneous enumerations, occurrence duplicate enumerations and duplicate enumerations of census based on the correct registration probability， and comparing the direct erroneous enumerations estimate of the census with the direct erroneous enumerations estimate based on the correct probability. Theoretical and empirical studies show that the direct overestimation and sampling standard error of census are higher than the direct overestimation and sampling standard error of census based on correct registration probability. The results show that the direct erroneous enumerations falsely increase the number of erroneous enumerations, and the accuracy of the direct erroneous enumerations based on the correct registration probability is higher. |
| Key words: sampling survey post enumeration survey erroneous enumerations |
