| 摘要: |
| 针对齿轮箱计划外停机和意外故障导致的风电机组安全运行问题，提出了一种基于ARIMA模型的故障趋势预测方法；方法可以处理具有非线性和非平稳性特征的齿轮箱运行状态监测数据，用以时间序列的自相关分析为基础的模型预测状态监测时间序列数据的趋势变化；选择生产现场采集到的齿轮箱油泵出口压力SCADA数据和运行实例验证了方法的有效性，实验结果的拟合效果令人满意；研究结果表明方法能够适应齿轮箱运行状态监测数据随时间的变化特征，反映出一定的运行状态变化趋势，具有较好的预测精度和较大的应用范围，对风电机组其他部件的故障趋势预测具有一定的应用参考价值。 |
| 关键词: ARIMA 时间序列 故障趋势预测， 齿轮箱 |
| DOI： |
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| Research on Fault Trend Prediction Method of Wind Turbine Gearbox Based on ARIMA |
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YANG Yi,FU Dao-yi, YONG Bin
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| Abstract: |
| Aiming at safe operation problem of wind turbines caused by unplanned downtime and unexpected failure of gearbox , a fault trend prediction method based on ARIMA model is proposed. The method can process the gearbox operating condition monitoring data with nonlinear and non stationary features, and predict the trend change of the time series data using the model based on autocorrelation analysis of time series. The effectiveness of the method is verified by the SCADA data of the outlet pressure of the gearbox oil pump collected at the production site, the fitting effect of the experiment is satisfactory. The research results show that this method can adapt to the changing features of gearbox condition monitoring data with time, which has reflected the certain trends of operation state , and it has good prediction accuracy and greater scope of application. It also has a certain reference value for the failure trend prediction of the other parts of the wind turbine. |
| Key words: ARIMA time series fault trend prediction gearbox |
