| 引用本文: | 薛倩, 牟凤云, 涂植凤.组合预测方法在重庆市GDP预测中的应用(J/M/D/N,J:杂志，M：书，D：论文，N：报纸).期刊名称,2017，34（1）：56-63 |
| CHEN X. Adap tive slidingmode contr ol for discrete2ti me multi2inputmulti2 out put systems[ J ]. Aut omatica, 2006, 42(6): 4272-435 |
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| 摘要: |
| GDP是国民经济发展的一个重要衡量标准，对其进行准确地预测非常重要；以重庆市为研究对象,基于统计数据，应用时间序列分析中的指数平滑法和ARIMA模型以及组合预测模型分别对2015—2020年重庆市的GDP进行了预测，并进行对比分析；研究结果表明：3种方法的误差均较小，但组合模型预测精度更高，重庆市未来几年的GDP年增长率将维持在10%左右。 |
| 关键词: 指数平滑法；ARIMA模型；组合预测模型 重庆市；GDP |
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| Application of Combination Forecast Method to Chongqing’s GDP Prediction |
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XUE Qian, MOU Feng yun, TU Zhi feng
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| Abstract: |
| GDP, as an important economic development measurement index, is important to be predicted. By using Chongqing as a study object, by exponential smoothing method in time series analysis, ARIMA Model and combination forecast model,Chongqing’s GDP during 2015—2020 is predicted and its comparative analysis is conducted. The research results show that the deviation of the three methods is small, however, the accuracy of combination forecast model is higher, and that Chongqing’s GDP yearly growth rate in the coming years will be maintained at about 10 percent. |
| Key words: exponential smoothing method ARIMA Model combination forecast model Chongqing GDP |
