中国出口贸易隐含碳生产率演变态势与增长来源
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Evolution Trend and Growth Source of Embodied Carbon Productivity in China’s Export Trade
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    摘要:

    在新发展阶段,“双碳”目标的提出使生产低碳化成为高质量发展的重要内容。出口贸易带来的碳转移排放加大了碳减排压力,只有不断提高出口贸易隐含碳生产率才能实现出口增长与碳减排的双赢。然而,现有文献对出口贸易隐含碳生产率的研究不足,尤其缺乏对其演变态势和增长来源的深入探究。本文利用非竞争型投入产出模型测算2002—2017年中国26个部门的出口贸易隐含碳排放量,用单位隐含碳排放的产出来表征出口贸易隐含碳生产率,进而考察其演变趋势和部门收敛性,并采用LMDI-Attribution模型对其增长来源进行分解,研究结果显示:(1)2002—2005年,中国出口贸易隐含碳生产率出现小幅下降,其后则呈持续增长态势;尽管各部门的出口贸易隐含碳生产率呈平稳上升态势,但整体水平不高,且不同部门的演变趋势也不一致;第一、三产业的各部门出口贸易隐含碳生产率相对较高(均大于0.10万元/t),而第二产业的大部分部门相对较低,尤其是制造业中的高碳密集型产业最低。(2)2002—2017年各部门出口贸易隐含碳生产率的标准差、对数离差系数以及变异系数均呈增长趋势,不存在σ收敛,但存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,表明低生产率部门的增速高于高生产率部门,但还未带来部门间绝对差距的缩小。(3)在样本期间,中国出口贸易隐含碳生产率的增长主要来源于技术进步带来的能源生产效率提高和内需扩大带来的生产外向度降低;各部门和产业出口贸易隐含碳生产率增长的主要来源也是能源生产效率的提高,其贡献率远大于其他因素,但不同部门和产业的增长来源及各因素的贡献大小也具有明显的差异。与现有文献相比,本文采用单要素碳生产率法对26个部门和三次产业及制造业中不同碳密集型产业的出口贸易隐含碳生产率进行测算,并分析了其部门收敛性,丰富和细化了关于隐含碳生产率的经验分析;同时,对各部门和产业出口贸易隐含碳生产率的增长来源进行LMDI分解和Attribution归因,为提高出口贸易隐含碳生产率提供了经验借鉴。本文研究表明:中国出口贸易隐含碳生产率持续上升,但整体水平不高且部门差距较大;技术进步是提高出口贸易隐含碳生产率的根本,满足国内需求的生产进步也会有效促进出口贸易隐含碳生产率提高。因此,应通过低碳偏向性技术进步和扩大内需有效促进碳生产率提高,尤其要通过技术扩散促使碳生产率较低的部门加快追赶速度。

    Abstract:

    In the new stage of development, the proposal of the “dual carbon” goal makes low-carbon production an important part of high-quality development. The carbon transfer emissions brought by export trade increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction. Only by continuously improving the embodied carbon productivity of export trade can we achieve a win-win situation between export growth and carbon emission reduction. However, the existing literature on the embodied carbon productivity of export trade is insufficient, especially a lack of in-depth exploration of its evolution and sources of growth. This paper uses a non-competitive input-output model to measure the embodied carbon emissions of China’s export trade in 26 sectors from 2002 to 2017, uses the output of unit embodied carbon emissions to characterize the embodied carbon productivity of export trade, examines its evolution trend and sector convergence, and uses the LMDI-Attribution model to decompose its growth sources. The research results show that: (1) from 2002 to 2005, the embodied carbon productivity of China’s export trade decreased slightly, and then continued to grow steadily; although the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in various sectors has shown a steady upward trend, the overall level is not high, and the evolution trend of different sectors is also inconsistent; the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in various sectors of the primary and tertiary industries is relatively high (both greater than 0.1 million yuan / t), while most sectors of the secondary industry are relatively low, especially the high-carbon-intensive industries in the manufacturing industry are the lowest. (2) From 2002 to 2017, the standard deviation, logarithmic deviation and coefficient of variation of carbon productivity embodied in export trade of various sectors showed an increasing trend. There is no “σ” convergence, but there is an absolute “β” convergence and a conditional “β” convergence, indicating that the growth rate of the low-productivity sector is higher than that of the high-productivity sector, but it has not yet brought about a narrowing of the absolute gap between sectors. (3) During the sample period, the growth of carbon productivity embodied in China’s export trade is mainly due to the improvement of energy production efficiency brought about by technological progress and the reduction of production export degree brought about by the expansion of domestic demand. The main source of the growth of embodied carbon productivity in export trade across sectors and industries is also the improvement of energy production efficiency, which contributes much more than other factors. However, the sources of growth of embodied carbon productivity in export trade in different sectors and industries and the size of the contribution of each factor are also significantly different. Compared with the existing literature, this paper uses the single factor carbon productivity method to measure the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in 26 sectors, three industries and different carbon-intensive industries in the manufacturing industry, and analyzes its sectoral convergence, enriching and refining the empirical analysis on the embodied carbon productivity. At the same time, the LMDI decomposition and Attribution of the growth sources of export trade embodied carbon productivity of various sectors and industries provide experience and reference for improving export trade embodied carbon productivity. The research of this paper shows that: the embodied carbon productivity of China’s export trade continues to rise, but the overall level is not high and the gap between sectors is large; technological progress is fundamental to improving the embodied carbon productivity of export trade, and advances in production to meet domestic demand will also effectively promote the increase of the embodied carbon productivity of export trade. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively promote carbon productivity through low-carbon technological progress and expansion of domestic demand, especially to accelerate the catch-up speed of sectors with low carbon productivity through technological diffusion.

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胡剑波,王楷文.中国出口贸易隐含碳生产率演变态势与增长来源[J].西部论坛,2022,32(3):109-124

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-25