Abstract:In the new stage of development, the proposal of the “dual carbon” goal makes low-carbon production an important part of high-quality development. The carbon transfer emissions brought by export trade increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction. Only by continuously improving the embodied carbon productivity of export trade can we achieve a win-win situation between export growth and carbon emission reduction. However, the existing literature on the embodied carbon productivity of export trade is insufficient, especially a lack of in-depth exploration of its evolution and sources of growth. This paper uses a non-competitive input-output model to measure the embodied carbon emissions of China’s export trade in 26 sectors from 2002 to 2017, uses the output of unit embodied carbon emissions to characterize the embodied carbon productivity of export trade, examines its evolution trend and sector convergence, and uses the LMDI-Attribution model to decompose its growth sources. The research results show that: (1) from 2002 to 2005, the embodied carbon productivity of China’s export trade decreased slightly, and then continued to grow steadily; although the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in various sectors has shown a steady upward trend, the overall level is not high, and the evolution trend of different sectors is also inconsistent; the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in various sectors of the primary and tertiary industries is relatively high (both greater than 0.1 million yuan / t), while most sectors of the secondary industry are relatively low, especially the high-carbon-intensive industries in the manufacturing industry are the lowest. (2) From 2002 to 2017, the standard deviation, logarithmic deviation and coefficient of variation of carbon productivity embodied in export trade of various sectors showed an increasing trend. There is no “σ” convergence, but there is an absolute “β” convergence and a conditional “β” convergence, indicating that the growth rate of the low-productivity sector is higher than that of the high-productivity sector, but it has not yet brought about a narrowing of the absolute gap between sectors. (3) During the sample period, the growth of carbon productivity embodied in China’s export trade is mainly due to the improvement of energy production efficiency brought about by technological progress and the reduction of production export degree brought about by the expansion of domestic demand. The main source of the growth of embodied carbon productivity in export trade across sectors and industries is also the improvement of energy production efficiency, which contributes much more than other factors. However, the sources of growth of embodied carbon productivity in export trade in different sectors and industries and the size of the contribution of each factor are also significantly different. Compared with the existing literature, this paper uses the single factor carbon productivity method to measure the embodied carbon productivity of export trade in 26 sectors, three industries and different carbon-intensive industries in the manufacturing industry, and analyzes its sectoral convergence, enriching and refining the empirical analysis on the embodied carbon productivity. At the same time, the LMDI decomposition and Attribution of the growth sources of export trade embodied carbon productivity of various sectors and industries provide experience and reference for improving export trade embodied carbon productivity. The research of this paper shows that: the embodied carbon productivity of China’s export trade continues to rise, but the overall level is not high and the gap between sectors is large; technological progress is fundamental to improving the embodied carbon productivity of export trade, and advances in production to meet domestic demand will also effectively promote the increase of the embodied carbon productivity of export trade. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively promote carbon productivity through low-carbon technological progress and expansion of domestic demand, especially to accelerate the catch-up speed of sectors with low carbon productivity through technological diffusion.