New quality productive forces represent a qualitative leap in advanced productive forces and serve as a critical pillar for driving high-quality economic development. The rapid advancement of big data provides both technological support and factor endowment for upgrading productivity, making it a key driver for fostering and expanding new quality productive forces. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation indicator system for both big data development and new quality productive forces development, and thoroughly analyzes the effect of big data development on new quality productive forces. The findings reveal that big data development exerts a significant positive promoting effect on new quality productive forces, and this conclusion remains robust after endogeneity tests and robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that this positive impact is more pronounced in eastern China, as well as in regions characterized by high technological levels, advanced financial development, and sound industrial structures. The research outcomes offer theoretical insights and policy implications for accelerating big data development, fostering new quality productive forces, and advancing high-quality economic and social development.