International trade frictions and conflicts have led countries to raise high tariff barriers, which have had a great impact on cross-border supply chain systems, while countries with lower tariffs face numerous uncertainty risks. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the impact of tariffs and risks on manufacturers’ production decisions. This paper discusses and analyzes the relationship between manufacturers in the country of origin, retailers in the importing country, and the government of the importing country in the supply chain system, and establishes the S-model, Z-model, and SZ-model. The study finds that: prices and market demand in the direct sales market are more likely to be affected by tariffs; the more risk a manufacturer prefers, the more likely it is to develop emerging production bases and transfer its supply chain; tariffs, risks, the proportion of supply chain transfers and the proportion of the transferred portion used for wholesaling all affect the manufacturer’s utility; when the factors of tariff, risk and potential market share of retailers are certain, it is more favorable for manufacturers to obtain greater utility by effectively formulating the proportion of supply chain transfer and the proportion of the transferred portion used for wholesaling.