长江经济带养老服务均等化建设水平及收敛性研究
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Research on the Level and Convergence of Equalization Construction of Elderly Care Services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
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    摘要:

    为准确把握长江经济带养老服务均等化建设现状,确保区域养老服务协调发展,构建养老服务均等化建设评价指标体系,以长江经济带11个省市最新面板数据为样本,运用熵值法、泰尔指数对长江经济带养老服务均等化建设水平进行测评,并基于σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛模型实证检验其收敛效应。研究发现:样本考察期内,长江经济带养老服务均等化建设差距逐渐缩小,且区域间差异小于区域内差异。长江经济带上下游地区养老服务均等化建设水平存在显著的σ收敛特征,下游地区绝对β收敛程度最高,且在上述模型下,存在上下游地区对中游地区的“追赶”效应;不同驱动因素的条件β收敛情况各不相同:65岁以上的人口数量显著促进了长江经济带上下游地区养老服务均等化建设呈条件β收敛,卫生机构数量显著促进了中游地区呈条件β收敛,城乡居民基本养老保险基金支出显著促进了长江经济带整体及各地区养老服务均等化建设呈条件β收敛。实证分析结论为应对人口老龄化和提升养老服务均等化建设水平提供了重要政策启示。

    Abstract:

    To accurately grasp the current status of the equalization construction of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and ensure the coordinated development of regional elderly care services, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the equalization construction of elderly care services. Using the latest panel data from 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as samples, the entropy method and Theil index are employed to evaluate the level of equalization construction of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Additionally, the σ convergence, absolute β convergence, and conditional β convergence models are empirically tested for their convergence effects. The research findings show that during the sample period, the gap in equalization construction of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has gradually narrowed, and regional differences are smaller than intra-regional differences. There is a significant σ convergence feature in the equalization construction of elderly care services between upstream and downstream areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, with the downstream areas showing the highest level of absolute β convergence. Moreover, under the above model, there is a “catch-up” effect of upstream and downstream regions over midstream regions. The conditional β convergence of different driving factors varies: the population aged 65 and above significantly promotes conditional β convergence of equalization construction of elderly care services in upstream and downstream areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the number of healthcare institutions significantly promotes conditional β convergence in midstream areas, and the expenditure of basic old-age insurance funds for urban and rural residents significantly promotes conditional β convergence of overall and regional equalization construction of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The empirical analysis conclusions provide important policy insights for addressing population aging and improving the level of equalization construction of elderly care services.

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田时中,束宇雪.长江经济带养老服务均等化建设水平及收敛性研究[J].重庆工商大学社会科学版,2024,41(4):56-68

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-05