本文选取2006—2018 年中国对76 个国家教育服务出口的面板数据,采用随机前沿引力模型 研究我国教育服务的出口效率及潜力,并采用一步法分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1) 中国和生源国的 经济规模、生源国的人口规模、中国对生源国的FDI、中国高校数量、孔子学院数量以及学历互认协议均 对我国教育服务出口有显著促进作用,而对反映留学成本的地理距离、文化距离等因素则有抑制作用。 (2)2006—2018 年中国教育服务出口只实现了62%的出口潜力,其中对卡塔尔、阿联酋、科威特等7 个国 家的出口效率相对较低,只实现了不足40%的出口潜力。(3)虽然中国对非“一带一路”沿线国家的教育 服务出口效率整体高于“一带一路”沿线国家,但自2013 年“一带一路” 倡议提出后,中国对“一带一路” 沿线国家教育服务的出口效率快速上升。
This paper selects the panel data of China’s education service exports to 76 countries from 2006 to 2018, uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to study the export efficiency and potential of China’s education service, and uses one-step method to analyze its influencing factors. The results show that the economic scale of China and student source countries, the population of student source countries, China’s FDI to student source countries, the number of universities in China, the number of Confucius Institutes, and the agreement on mutual recognition of academic qualifications all have a significant boosting effect on China’s education service exports. Geographical distance, cultural distance, and other factors that reflect the cost of studying abroad have a restraining effect. From 2006 to 2018, China’s education service exports only realized 62% of the export potential. Among them, the export efficiency to 7 countries including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait was relatively low, and only less than 40% of the export potential was realized. Although the overall efficiency of China’s education service export to non-Belt and Road countries is higher than that of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, after the “Belt and Road” initiative was put forward in 2013, the export efficiency of China’s education services to countries along the Belt and Road has risen rapidly.