基于系统的视角,以“网贷天眼” 和“网贷之家” 的行业月报为数据样本,运用系统动力学探究 网贷市场的演化趋势,并重点分析政府监管、网上征信对其演化的影响。结果表明:首先,网贷市场呈现 倒U 形演化趋势,未来运营平台数量将进一步下降。其次,在不同的网贷市场发展阶段,政府监管和网上 征信对网贷市场的良性演化具有不同的影响。其中,在市场发展初期,政府监管对网贷市场良性演化的 影响不显著,而网上征信对网贷市场演化具有负向影响,且网上征信比政府监管对网贷市场演化影响更 为显著;在市场发展成熟期,二者对网贷市场良性演化均具有负向影响,但网上征信比政府监管对网贷市 场演化的影响更显著;在市场发展后期,政府监管对网贷市场良性演化具有正向影响,而网上征信负向影 响网贷市场良性演化,并且,政府监管比网上征信对网贷市场演化的影响更显著。为此,提高征信数据质 量、持续强化平台监管、加快科技赋能步伐,将有助于网贷市场的健康发展。
Based on the perspective of the system, this paper focuses on the impact of government supervision and online credit information on the evolution of the online loan market by applying the system dynamics and taking the data from industry monthly reports of P2P Eye and WDZJ as its sample. The results showed that the online loan market presents an inverted U-shaped evolution trend, and the number of operating platforms will further decline in the future. Moreover, the impact of government regulation and online credit investigation on the benign evolution of the online loan market varies among different market stages. In the early stage of market development, government supervision has no significant impact on the benign evolution of the online loan market, while online credit investigation has a negative effect. Meanwhile, the influence of online credit investigation exerted on the evolution of the online loan market is more significant than that of government regulation. In the mature stage of market development, both of them have a negative impact on the benign evolution of the online loan market, but the impact of online credit investigation is more significant than that of government supervision. In the later stage of market development, government regulation has a positive effect on the benign evolution of the online loan market, while online credit investigation exerts a negative effect. Besides, the effect that government supervision exerts on the evolution of the online loan market is more significant than that of online credit information. Therefore, improving the quality of credit data, continuously strengthening platform supervision, and accelerating the pace of technological empowerment will contribute to the healthy development of the online loan market.