Innovative development and overcapacity are two core issues in China’s current economic development process,and the correlation analysis between the two will provide theoretical support for solving the current overcapacity problem.This paper takes the listed companies in the manufacturing industry as the research object,manually collects the 2010-2017 substantive innovation data and the enterprise total factor productivity data,and empirically examines the impact of overcapacity of China’s listed manufacturing companies on the total factor productivity of the enterprises.The results show that overcapacity inhibits the company’s substantial innovation output and total factor productivity growth;at the same time,substantive innovation plays a mediating role in overcapacity and corporate total factor productivity,and substantial innovation is positively correlated with total factor productivity.Further research finds that overcapacity has a stronger inhibitory effect on substantial innovation and total factor productivity in the regions with a faster marketization.Therefore,the enterprises should increase their technological progress and gain substantial innovation in competitive advantages but not just pursue the“quantity”of innovation,so as to improve the total factor productivity of the enterprises and seek long-term development of the enterprises.