中国重工业部门的产能过剩监测与比较——基于可变成本函数法
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The Monitoring and Comparison of China’s Heavy Industry Overcapacity:Based on the Variable Cost Function Method
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    摘要:

    重工业去产能是中国供给侧改革的重点和难点。因为缺乏分行业可追溯的产能利用率历史和结构数据,现有研究对产能过剩的历史成因、结构演变和主要症结梳理多有分歧。本研究基于超越对数成本函数,通过似不相关回归(SUR)估计,采用中国工业企业数据库提供的微观企业数据,试图提供一个能有效表征不同行业产能利用率变化历史与结构特征的统一数据基础,并选择钢铁、煤炭和水泥三个代表性部门进行了实证比较,研究结果显示:(1)中国重工业部门产能格局拐点大致出现在2004年,之后的供给扩张和政策干扰导致产能过剩逐步显现,并对退出成本高的钢铁等领域产生了最显著冲击;(2)不同行业供给侧改革方式应有所差异,钢铁去产能需要更多行政力量干预,煤炭去产能核心在于供给优化,水泥则可依靠市场机制自动调节;(3)国企市场化改革并非去产能的唯一良药,依据行业特质进行产业整合有助于提升整体抗风险能力。该研究可拓展应用于其他工业部门的产能过剩监测分析。

    Abstract:

    De-capacity in heavy industry is the key and difficult point of China’s supply side reform.Due to the lack of traceable historical and structural data on capacity utilization by each industry,the existing studies have many differences in the historical causes,structural evolution and main crux about the overcapacity.Based on the Translog Cost Function and with the estimation on the seemingly uncorrelated regression(SUR),this study uses the microcosmic enterprise data supplied by the China Industry Enterprise Database to try to provide the unified data base which can effectively characterize the historical evolution and structural characteristic of capacity utilization in different industries,and selects three representative sectors(steel,coal and cement)for empirical comparison.The research result shows that(1)the turning point in the capacity pattern of China’s heavy industry roughly appeared in 2004,and the subsequent expansion in supply and policy interference led to the gradual emergence of overcapacity,which had the most impact on the steel and other fields with high withdrawal cost;(2)The model of supply side reform should be different:De-capacity in steel industry needs more administrative intervention,the key de-capacity of coal industry is supply optimization,and the capacity of cement industry can be automatically adjusted by market mechanism;(3)The market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises is not the only good medicine for de-capacity,the industrial integration based on the industry characteristics will improve overall risk resistance.The study can also be used to monitor and analyze the overcapacity in other industries.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-12-01