三峡库区农业适度规模经营的影响因素及动态变化
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Influencing Factors and Dynamic Change on Moderate Scale Management of Agriculture in Three-Gorges Reservoir Area
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    摘要:

    运用区域2006—2015年土地资源数据库,结合社会、经济、人口数据,在DPS软件平台的支持下,研究区域农业规模经营的影响因素,采用层次分析法和熵值法,确定各影响因素的综合权重并排序,运用各个因素的综合得分计算获取每年的农业规模经营指数,对农业规模经营的动态变化进行了比较和分析。结果表明:对农业规模经营指数影响最突出的因素排序是经济因素、效益因素和投入因素,其次是产出因素和资源因素,人口因素占比相对较小;农业投入因素的逐年增长与区域经济发展水平显著相关,反映了农业的投入随经济发展水平的提高而增加,农业规模经营指数因投入增加而呈上升趋势;乡村人口逐年缓慢降低的同时,人均耕地逐年提高,为规模经营提供了良好的基础条件;农业规模经营指数总体呈现出逐年递增,2009年后,增长速率加快。趋势化模拟表明,农业规模经营在各项因素的综合影响下将呈现出良好的发展和增长态势。

    Abstract:

    Based on land resources database, and the data of economy and population during 20062015 of Wanzhou in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, by using DPS software, this paper studied the influencing factors of agricultural scale management, by using AHP and entropy method, determined the comprehensive weights of each influencing factor, sorted and calculated the annual agricultural scale operating index, analyzed and compared the dynamic changes of agricultural scale management. The main conclusions include:1)The weight to present differences between analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, but the sorting of factors reflected the consistency, so that the comprehensive value of the weight can be used to calculate the index of scale management.2) The sorting on influence factors of agricultural scale management is economy, efficiency, output, resource, and demographic factors. The agricultural investment factor has been associated significantly with economic development level of different regions, therefore, agricultural investment increases with raising the level of economic development, and agricultural scale operation index changes with raising the investment.4)As the rural population is reduced slowly year by year, per capita cultivated land increase step by step ,the one of dynamic changes provides a good basic condition for the scale management of agriculture. In general, agricultural scale operation index presents increasing year by year, after 2009, the growth rate was accelerated. Simulation curve shows that agricultural scale operation presents a good development trend under the comprehensive influence of various factors.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-12-26