进口效应的深度挖掘 ——基于首届中国国际进口博览会视角——来自省级动态面板的系统GMM实证
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The Deep Mining of Import Effect:Based on the Perspective of the First China International Import Expo
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    摘要:

    本文基于以往文献的梳理,进口博览会将带来消费者福利效应、技术溢出效应、产业结构优化效应、经济增长效应以及经贸关系促进等叠加效应。根据新古典增长理论,以柯布道格拉斯函数测算出全要素生产率,通过协整分析的验证,进口贸易对全要素生产率产生了促进作用。从进口贸易结构分类更细微的视角探讨不同种类的商品对经济增长影响,实证检验得出初级品、中间品、资本品和消费品都对国内生产总值皆产生显著的积极影响,其中中间品的进口对国内生产总值的作用最大,其次是资本品、消费品和初级品。我国对初级品和消费品的进口并未引起重视。基于以上分析,进博会效应可以影响道义导向、瓶颈产业、贸易结构、技术吸收以及放大博览会本身效应等衍生领域。

    Abstract:

    By combing the past literatures,it is concluded that the first China international import Expo will bring the benefit effect of consumers,technology spillover effect,industrial structure optimization effect,economic growth effect and trade relations promotion effect.According to the newclassical growth theory,by using CobbDauglas function to calculate the total factor productivity,through cointegration analysis,the import trade has been proved to have promoted the total factor productivity.From a more nuanced perspective of import trade structure to explore the impact of different kinds of commodities on economic growth,the empirical test shows that the primary goods,intermediate products,capital goods and consumer goods all have had a significantly positive impact on gross domestic product,among which the import of intermediate goods has the greatest effect on GDP,followed by capital goods,consumer goods and primary commodities.However,China’s imports of primary commodities and consumer goods have not attracted much attention.Based on the above analysis,the Import Expo effects can be continuously expanded into development direction,development of bottleneck industry,improvement of trade structure,technological absorption and enlargement of the Expo effect.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-12-18