产业升级、空间溢出与经济增长质量——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析
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Industrial Upgrading, Spatial Spillover and Economic Growth Quality——Empirical Analysis Based on Space Dubin Model
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    摘要:

    文章通过主成分分析方法对我国30个省(市、区)1997—2014年的经济增长质量指数进行测算,并运用空间面板杜宾模型就产业升级对我国经济增长质量影响进行实证分析,研究表明:(1)我国经济增长质量自1997年以来总体上呈现上升趋势,经济质量不断提高。但不同省域的增速有差异,具体而言,青海、广东和江苏三省(市)经济效益显著,经济质量有较大幅度提高,而广西、福建和河北三省经济效益不佳,经济质量还有待提高。(2)从差分广义矩估计回归结果可知,解释变量产业升级、人力资本及创新系数为正且都高度显著,表明产业升级、人力资本提高及技术创新是提高经济增长质量的关键因素。而变量制度系数为负且通过了10%的显著性水平,表明制度变迁在短期内抑制了经济增长质量的提高。(3)产业升级、人力资本及创新等解释变量对相邻空间单元的经济增长质量指数存在正向的溢出效应,且产业升级程度每提高1%将使经济增长质量值提高0.256%,表明了产业升级改善了经济增长质量。

    Abstract:

    This paper evaluates the index of China’s economic development quality by using principal component analysis based on provincial panel data of 30 provinces and municipalities of China during 1997-2014, and uses the spatial panel Doberman model to make an empirical analysis on the impact of industrial upgrading on the quality of China’s economic growth. The research results show that the quality of China’s economic growth is on the rise in general since 1997, however, the growth rates in different provinces are different. Specifically, the economic benefits of Qinghai, Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces are remarkable, and the economic quality of Guangxi, Fujian and Hebei provinces is poor, the economic quality needs to be improved. From Differential generalized moment estimation regression results, we know that industrial upgrading, human capital improvement and technological innovation are the key factors to improve the quality of economic growth, which indicates that industrial upgrading, human capital and technological innovation are the key factors to improve the quality of economic growth. While the variable system coefficient is negative and through the 10% significance level, which indicate that institutional changes curb the improvement of economic growth quality in the short term. There is positive spillover effect of explanatory variables such as industrial upgrading, human capital and innovation on economic growth quality index in adjacent spatial unit, furthermore, economic growth quality rises 0.256 percent when industrial upgrading degree rises 1 percent, which show that industrial upgrading improves economic growth quality.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-12-26