Abstract:There are unavoidable four contradictions in historic decision theory such as the contradiction between historic law and human kinetic role, “Oedipus Effect” contradiction between recognition and being recognized, the contradiction between historic multiplayer overlapping movement and historic law linear restriction, and the contradiction between horizontal restriction mechanism of “possible space” and historic law tense movement, these four contradictions reveal that there is the bottleneck at deep level about historic decision theory research. Historic law needs to explore new path, and three conditions must be satisfied such as taking occasionality as the expressing form of historic movement, the influence of historic laws revealed subjectively on social practice being a part of historic process supported by objective and natural historic laws, and human kinetic practical activity being only the reason for continuously generating new history.