| 摘要: |
| 本文基于2013—2018 年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS),利用Probit 模型和Poisson 模型进行
分析。研究发现,互联网使用频率每增加1 个单位,居民选择生育的概率将降低2. 449 5%,并且生育孩
子的数量将减少1. 054 4%。这种影响在城镇居民、女性群体与经历过高等教育的个体中体现得更为明
显,且在二孩政策出台后体现得愈发显著。互联网使用影响居民生育意愿存在4 种机制:一是淡化了“养
儿防老”观念;二是改变了“男尊女卑” 观念;三是减少了健康对工作、生活的影响;四是提升了居民的主
观幸福感。进一步分析表明,互联网使用对生育意愿的阻碍更明显地体现在对生男孩的期待上,生女孩
的意愿则没有明显的前后差异。因此,加强互联网监管,引导居民形成积极的生育态度,将有助于缓解我
国少子化问题。 |
| 关键词: 互联网使用 生育意愿 养儿防老 主观幸福感 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Has Internet Use Reduced Residents’ Willingness to Have Children?Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS Data |
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XU Jin, ZHI Mingyue
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the data from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)from 2013 to 2018, this paper
uses Probit model and Poisson model for analysis. Research has found that for every 1 unit increase in the frequency
of internet use, the probability of residents choosing to have children will decrease by 2. 449 5%, and
the number of children born will decrease by 1. 054 4%. This impact is more evident among urban residents,
female groups, and individuals who have experienced higher education, and it is more significant after the introduction
of the two-child policy. There are four mechanisms by which internet use affects residents’ fertility intention:
firstly, it weakens the concept of “raising children to provide support in old age”; secondly, it changes
the concept of “male superiority and female inferiority”; thirdly, it reduces the impact of health on work and
life; fourthly, it has improved the subjective well-being of residents. Further analysis shows that the hindrance
of internet use to fertility intention is more clearly reflected in the expectation of giving birth to boys, while there
is no significant difference in the intention of having a girl. Therefore, strengthening the supervision of the internet
and guiding residents to form a positive attitude towards childbearing will help alleviate the problem of low
fertility rates in |
| Key words: internet use willingness to have children raising children for old-age support subjective wellbeing |
