| 摘要: |
| 国际贸易摩擦及冲突使得各国高筑关税壁垒,对跨国供应链体系造成了极大冲击,而关税较低
的国家又面临着众多不确定性风险。因此,探究关税和风险对制造商生产决策的影响迫在眉睫。通过讨
论分析原产国制造商、进口国零售商和进口国政府在供应链体系中的关系,建立S 模型、Z 模型和SZ 模
型,研究发现:直销市场的价格和市场需求量更容易受到关税的影响;制造商越偏好风险,越容易对新兴
生产基地进行开发,将供应链进行转移;关税、风险、供应链转移比例及转移部分用于批发的比例均会影
响制造商效用;在关税、风险和零售商的潜在市场份额等因素一定时,有效制定供应链转移比例和转移部
分用于批发的比例,更有利于制造商获取更大效用。 |
| 关键词: 关税差异 风险偏好 双渠道 供应链转移 转口贸易 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Considering the Impact of Tariff Differences and Risk Preferences on theDecisions of Manufacturers to Transfer Supply Chains |
|
XIAO Qiang, ZHANG Jinghua, ZHENG Yunjian
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| Abstract: |
| International trade frictions and conflicts have led countries to raise high tariff barriers, which
have had a great impact on cross-border supply chain systems, while countries with lower tariffs face numerous
uncertainty risks. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the impact of tariffs and risks on manufacturers’ production
decisions. This paper discusses and analyzes the relationship between manufacturers in the country of origin, retailers
in the importing country, and the government of the importing country in the supply chain system, and
establishes the S-model, Z-model, and SZ-model. The study finds that: prices and market demand in the direct
sales market are more likely to be affected by tariffs; the more risk a manufacturer prefers, the more likely it is
to develop emerging production bases and transfer its supply chain; tariffs, risks, the proportion of supply chain
transfers and the proportion of the transferred portion used for wholesaling all affect the manufacturer’s utility;
when the factors of tariff, risk and potential market share of retailers are certain, it is more favorable for manufacturers
to obtain greater utility by effectively formulating the proportion of supply chain transfer and the proportion
of the transferred portion used for wholesaling. |
| Key words: tariff difference risk preference dual-channel supply chain transfer entrepot trade |
