| 摘要: |
| 通过改进现有方法重新计算 1994—2017 年中国资本、劳动、消费平均有效税率,并以此为基础运用 SVAR 模型考察有效税率结构变动对财政赤字的冲击影响。 结果显示:提高消费平均有效税率能够从短期和长期改善我国财政状况,提高资本平均有效税率仅能在短期内改善我国财政状况,提高劳动平均有效税率在短期和长期均不能改善我国财政状况。 因此,未来我国结构性减税降费可选择的施政策略是:第一,在推动增值税并档降率的同时,需确保增值税平均税率的稳定,改革并完善环境保护税制度;第二,提高对环境和身体有害商品的消费税税率,将更多高档物品和服务纳入消费税的课征范围;第三,通过扶持老龄产业发展、提高社会保障水平增强老年人的消费能力;第四,完善现行个人所得税制度并改善
征管条件,扩大对个人资本所得课税并考虑增加对自然人财富存量的课税;第五,清理当前复杂的涉企资本要素课税税收优惠政策,堵塞税收漏洞,建立规范、有序、合理的税收优惠体系。 |
| 关键词: 财政安全 平均有效税率 赤字 SVAR 模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Impact of Changes in Effective Tax Rate Structure on FiscalDeficits from a Fiscal Security Perspective |
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HAN Qing
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| Abstract: |
| This study recalculates the average effective tax rates of capital, labor, and consumption in China from 1994 to 2017 using improved methodologies. Based on these calculations, the SVAR model is employed
to investigate the impact of variations in the effective tax rate structure on fiscal deficits. The results indicate that
increasing the average effective tax rate on consumption can enhance China’s fiscal condition in both the short
and long term. Elevating the average effective tax rate on capital only leads to fiscal improvement in the short
term, while raising the average effective tax rate on labor does not result in any fiscal improvement in either the
short or long term. Therefore, potential policy strategies for structural tax cuts and fee reductions in China include: (1) ensuring the stability of the average VAT rate while promoting VAT rate consolidation and reduction, and reforming and enhancing the environmental protection tax system; (2) increasing consumption tax
rates on goods harmful to the environment and human health, and expanding the scope of the consumption tax to
include more luxury items and services; (3) enhancing the consumption capacity of the elderly by supporting
the development of the aging industry and improving social security levels; (4) refining the current personal income tax system and improving tax administration conditions, broadening the taxation of personal capital income, and considering the implementation of additional taxes on the wealth of natural persons; (5) streamlining
existing complex tax incentives related to corporate capital elements, plugging tax loopholes, and establishing a
standardized, orderly, and rational tax incentive system. |
| Key words: fiscal security average effective tax rate deficit SVAR model |
