| 摘要: |
| 推进“互联网+”与对外贸易的深度融合是建设贸易强国的重要着力点。基于我国286个城市的截面数据，分别运用稳健最小二乘估计、分位数回归以及截面门限模型，实证分析“互联网+”对中国对外贸易影响的总体效应、条件性效应以及阶段性特征。研究发现，我国“互联网+”总指数的提升显著促进了对外贸易的发展。并且，“互联网+”总指数的提升对国际贸易的影响效应呈现边际递减。进一步地，“互联网+”总指数的演进对我国对外贸易的影响存在明显的门限效应特征，跨越门限值后“互联网+”对国际贸易的促进作用大幅降低。就空间分布来看，沿海地区城市“互联网+”进程整体领先于内陆与沿边城市，并且在区位条件上具有地理禀赋优势，全国大部分城市“互联网+”与对外贸易的协同发展已进入新阶段。最后，基于实证结果提出了相应政策建议。 |
| 关键词: “互联网+” 总指数 对外贸易 数字中国 贸易规模 截面门限模型 |
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| An Empirical Study of the Effect of “Internet+” on China’s Foreign Trade in the Context of Digital China Strategy |
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ZHANG Jun1，GUO Xiyu21,2
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1. School of Economics and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China;2. Qufu Sub-Branch, People’s Bank of China, Qufu 273100, Shandong, China
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| Abstract: |
| Promoting the profound integration of “Internet+” and foreign trade is an important focus of building an advanced trading country. Based on the cross-sectional data of 286 cities in China, this paper uses robust least squares estimation, quantile regression, and cross-sectional threshold models to empirically analyze the overall effect, conditional effect, and stage characteristics of the impact of “Internet+” on China’s international trade. The research found that the improvement of China’s “Internet+” index has significantly promoted the development of foreign trade. Moreover, the increase in the “Internet+” index has a diminishing marginal effect on international trade. Furthermore, the evolution of the “Internet+” index has obvious characteristics of threshold effect on China’s foreign trade. After crossing the threshold, the “Internet+” promotion effect on international trade is greatly reduced. In terms of spatial distribution, cities in coastal areas are generally ahead of inland and border cities in the “Internet+” process, and have geographical endowment advantages in terms of location conditions. Generally speaking, the coordinated development of “Internet+” and foreign trade in most cities in China has entered a new stage. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the empirical results. |
| Key words: “Internet+” combined index foreign trade digital China trade scale cross-section threshold model |
