| 摘要: |
| 通过对人口负增长下日本房地产市场变动情况的分析以及对相关应对政策的梳理发现:人口总量负增长会导致住房增量供给速度的下降以及存量供给的增加;人口负增长并不必然导致房价和地价的下降,经济增长与收入水平的提升对房价和地价上涨的作用更大;人口老龄化对房地产市场有“危”有“机”,应辩证对待。为应对人口减少和老龄化加速对房地产市场的负向影响,日本政府和学者分别从人口和房地产两个层面提出了多项政策应对,这对即将进入人口负增长的中国具有积极的借鉴作用。 |
| 关键词: 人口负增长 少子老龄化 房地产市场 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Real Estate Market under Negative Population Growth: Japan’s Experience and Enlightenment |
|
YI Cheng-dong, FAN Zheng-de, BI Tian-yu
|
|
School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102200, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Through the analysis of the changes in Japan’ s real estate market under negative population growth and the sorting out the related policies, this paper finds that the negative population growth will lead to a reduction in the rate of incremental housing supply and an excess of stock supply; the negative population growth does not necessarily lead to the decline of housing price and land price, and economic growth and the improvement of income level have a greater impact on the rise of housing price and land price; the aging of the population poses “risks” and “opportunities” to the real estate market and should be treated dialectically. In order to cope with the negative impact of the depopulation and aging on the real estate market, the Japanese government and scholars have proposed several policy recommendations from two aspects of population and real estate respectively, which can be used as a positive reference for China with the similar problem in the near future. |
| Key words: negative population growth declining birthrate and aging real estate market |
