陈明明,李钢.经济学人对中欧班列发展及影响的判断*[J].重庆工商大学社会科学版,2020,37(2):31-43
经济学人对中欧班列发展及影响的判断*
The Economists’Judgment on the Development and Impact of EU China Railway Express:Analysis Based on Questionnaire Survey by China Economist
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  中欧班列  一带一路  国际贸易  跨境电商  产业升级
英文关键词:CR Express  the Belt and Road  international trade  cross border electronic commerce  industrial upgrading
基金项目:
作者单位
陈明明,李钢 中国社会科学院 工业经济研究所北京 100732 
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中文摘要:
      2019年5月《中国经济学人》杂志围绕中欧班列对“一带一路”倡议建设、中—欧亚国际贸易发展、跨境电商发展以及我国产业升级四个方面的影响对经济学人展开了问卷调查。结果显示,多数经济学人认为:首先,中欧班列与“一带一路”倡议能够形成良好互促关系,但沿线国家间安全信任度低是制约这种关系发展的最主要因素;其次,中欧班列对我国(尤其是大西北地区)国际贸易总量有净增长效应,利于改善中欧贸易失衡,但这也面临通关效率低下及由欧洲对华高技术产品出口管制所导致的回程率低等问题的困扰;再次,运输成本低廉的中欧班列为跨境电商发展提供了有利条件,但其运输时间较长影响了其促进作用的发挥;最后,中欧班列虽然能够通过优化产业布局促进我国(尤其是西部地区)产业升级,但也存在对高技术产业带动作用小及由班列恶性竞争对产业技术创新资源挤出等问题。
英文摘要:
      In May 2019,China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey of economists on the impact of CR Express on the four aspects of the Belt and Road, international trade, cross border electronic commerce and industrial upgrading. Survey reveals that, firstly, CR Express and the Belt and Road can form a good mutual promotion relationship, but low security trust among countries along the line is the most important factor restricting the development of this relationship. Secondly, CR Express has a net growth effect on the total volume of international trade in China, especially in the northwest region, and is conducive to improving the trade imbalance between China and Europe. it also faces problems such as low efficiency of customs clearance and low return rate caused by European export control of high tech products to China. Thirdly, CR Express with low transportation cost has provided favorable conditions for the development of cross border e commerce in Central Europe and Asia, but its long transit time has affected its promotion. Finally, although CR Express can promote the industrial upgrading of China by optimizing the industrial layout, especially in the western region, it also has some problems, such as small scale action for high tech industries, vicious competition and government intervention crowding out resources for industrial technological innovation.
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