| 摘要: |
| 使用1998—2017年旅游业与经济增长的时间序列数据，构建二阶差分向量自回归模型，基于行业差异性视角，实证检验了我国六个旅游相关行业与经济增长之间的关系。研究发现，航空运输、批发零售、餐饮与经济增长之间存在长期协整关系，而住宿、铁路运输和商务服务与经济增长不存在长期协整关系；GDP与铁路运输、餐饮之间以及就业与航空、住宿、批发零售之间呈现单向因果关系，整体经济增长对部分旅游相关行业的发展产生直接或间接影响效应；VAR模型结果表明经济增长在不同程度上受到旅游相关行业的影响，特别是航空运输和住宿；部分旅游相关行业之间存在单向因果关系，在长期内彼此相互影响。 |
| 关键词: 旅游发展 经济增长 旅游相关行业 行业差异性 向量自回 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Research on the Relationship between China’s Tourism Development and Economic Growth from the Perspective of Tourism Related Industries: Based on the Optimal Vector Autoregressive Model |
|
GUO Jian-quana,c, HUANG Liu-junb,c1,2,3
|
|
1.a.ShanghaiHamburg College;2.b.Business School;3.C.Institute for China Neighboring Economies,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 〗According to the 1998-2017 time series data, this paper constructs two order differential vector autoregressive model and empirically analyzes the relationship between China’s six tourism related industries and economic growth from the perspective of tourism related industries. The research finds that there is a long term cointegrated relationship between the development of air transportations, wholesale and retail, catering and the economic growth, that there is a one way causal relationship between GDP and railway transportation, catering, and between employment and aviation, accommodation, wholesale, and retail, and that overall economic growth has direct or indirect effects on the development of some tourism related industries. The result of VAR model shows that economic growth is affected by tourism related industries to varying degrees, especially air transportations and accommodation, and that some tourism related industries have one way causality, which affects each other in the long run. |
| Key words: tourism development economic growth tourism related industry industry differentiation vector autoregressive model |
