| 摘要: |
| 基于2010年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，检验“新农保”对消费观念的影响以及二者对农民耐用品消费的影响，根据是否参加“新农保”将农民分成两组，采用分位数回归与分解法比较两组农民耐用品消费并探讨消费观念对农民耐用品消费影响差异的原因。研究发现，“新农保”使农民对未来预期更加乐观，从而增加了耐用品消费。新农保、消费观念正向影响农民耐用品消费；参加“新农保”的农民耐用品消费高于没有参加的农民，在耐用品消费分位数分布的高端，两组农民差距更加明显，而消费倾向率是差距拉大的重要原因。 |
| 关键词: 新型农村社会养老保险 消费观念 耐用品消费 分位数回归 |
| DOI： |
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| Study on Promoting Effect of Farmers’ Durable Goods Consumption by New type Rural Social Endowment Insurance in First Test Area——Quantile Regression and Decomposition Based on Statistics of CGSS2010 Data |
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LI Shu-liang
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| Abstract: |
| Based on CGSS2010 data, this paper tests the influence of new-type rural social endowment insurance on consumption concept and the impact of the two on peasants’ consumption of durable goods. The farmers surveyed are divided into two groups according to whether they participate in the new-type rural social endowment insurance, by using quantile regression and decomposition method, the durable goods consumption of the two groups of the peasants is compared and the influence of consumption concept on peasants’ consumption of durable goods is discussed. The research reveals that the new ype rural social endowment insurance makes the peasants feel more optimistic for future expectation so that the durable goods consumption is increased, that new-type rural social endowment insurance and consumption concept have positive effect on peasants’ consumption of the durable goods, the durable goods consumption for the peasants who participate in new-type rural social endowment insurance is higher than that of the peasants who do not participate in the insurance, and that at the high-end of quantile distribution, the gap between the two groups of the peasants is more obvious, however, the propensity of consumption is the main reason for the wide gap. |
| Key words: new type rural social endowment insurance consumption concept durable goods consumption quantile regression |
