| 摘要: |
| 借鉴“绿色悖论”理论，利用中国2003—2012年省级面板数据，构建了空间面板杜宾模型来检验我国区域环境规制是否存在碳排放“绿色悖论”效应。结果表明：我国省区碳排放存在显著的空间相关性且呈现加强的趋势，60%左右的省区体现为高高聚集和低低聚集的碳排放特征；以工业污染治理完成投资额占地区生产总值的比重、工业SO2去除率、污染排放综合指数的逆指数为代表的三个环境规制变量均表现出明显的“绿色悖论”效应；值得注意的是，三个环境规制变量的“绿色悖论”效应存在空间溢出；人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放起推动作用且存在正向空间溢出效应，技术进步具有较好的碳减排效应且存在负向空间溢出效应。 |
| 关键词: 环境规制 空间杜宾模型 绿色悖论 溢出效应 |
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| A Study of Regional Environmental Regulation’s “Green Paradox” in China—Based on Spatial Panel Durbin Model |
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CHAI Zeyang，SUN Jian
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| Abstract: |
| This paper constructs the spatial panel Durbin model to test the existence of “green paradox” effect of carbon emissions in regional environmental regulation in China according to the theory of “green paradox” and the panel data of China’s 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012. The results show that the provincial carbon emission in China has significant spatial correlation which presents intensive trend. And about 60% of the provinces show the carbon emission characteristics of high gathering and low gathering. The proportion of investment completed in industrial pollution treatment to regional GDP, removal rate of industrial SO2 and the reverse index of pollution composite index have obvious “green paradox” effect, and the three environmental regulation variables have spatial spillover effect, which is worth noting. The size of population and per capita GDP have driving effect and have positive spatial spillover effect in carbon emissions. The technical progress has carbon emission reduction effect and negative spatial spillover effect. |
| Key words: environmental regulation spatial Durbin model green paradox spillover effect |
