| 摘要: |
| 文章分析了俄白哈关税同盟对我国特别是新疆农产品出口哈萨克斯坦的不同影响，并通过随机前沿引力模型分析贸易非效率项，结合灰色模型预测分析，探究关税同盟的影响趋势。结果表明：俄白哈关税同盟抑制了我国对哈农产品的出口，对新疆的冲击较为明显；贸易非效率水平均趋于下降，贸易效率因素将削弱俄白哈关税同盟的负面影响；未来四年我国对哈农产品出口将依旧保持上升态势，新疆对哈农产品出口增长尤为迅速；关税同盟对新疆既是机遇又是挑战，且机遇大于挑战。最后结合主要结论提出政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 俄白哈关税同盟 农产品出口贸易 随机前沿引力模型 灰色预测模型 |
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| Analysis of Impact and Tendency of the Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Customs Union on Sino Kazakhstan Agricultural Product Export Trade |
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WANG Yan fang
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| Abstract: |
| This article analyzed the different impacts of Russia Belarus Kazakhstan (RBK) custom union on agricultural products trade of the whole China and Xinjiang with regression model, then analyzed inefficiency part by the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model and the gray model, and predicted the tendency of the impact. Result shows that RBK has inhibitory effect on Chinese agricultural export trade, which is especially obvious to Xinjiang; inefficiency level of the trade trends to decline, trade efficiency factor will weaken the negative impact of RBK custom union. Agricultural export trade continues going up yearly over the next four years, growth rate of Xinjiang is much higher; to Xinjiang, RBK custom union is both opportunity and challenge, but there are more opportunities than challenges. Combining main conclusions, we put forward policy suggestions. |
| Key words: Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Customs Union agricultural product export trade stochastic frontier gravity model gray prediction model |
