| 摘要: |
| 汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应、资产价格效应和进口价格效应影响物价水平。协整分析及残差替代法回归的结果表明：2002年以来的人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀有显著影响，其中汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应渠道来影响国内的通货膨胀，资产价格效应渠道和进口价格效应渠道次之，本文针对这一现象给出了一些政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 人民币NDF汇率 通货膨胀 传导渠道
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| Analysis of the Influence of Transmission Channels of the Expectation of RMB Exchange Rate on Inflation |
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LI Yan li, HUANG Ying wei
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| Abstract: |
| Exchange rate expectations affect commodity prices mainly by currency substitution effect, asset price effect and import price effect. The results of cointegration regression and residual substitution method show that the RMB appreciation expectation since 2002 has significant impact on China’s inflation, among which the exchange rate expectation affects domestic inflation chiefly by currency substitution effect channel, then by asset price effect channel and import price effect channel. This paper gives some policy suggestions based on this phenomenon |
| Key words: RMB NDF exchange rate Inflation transmission channel |
