| 摘要: |
| 本文构建了保险股价波动的个体与整体模型，分析了经营绩效和市场情绪在保险股价波动中的作用。实证表明，保险股价具有自回归特征，短期内不会大幅偏离；保险股价与承保业绩反方向变化，反映了承保业务的周期性；保险股价与上证指数同方向变化而与深成指数反方向变化，反映了保险股大盘股的属性；保险股价易受财政金融政策的冲击，对系统性风险敏感。股价剧烈波动会影响上市保险公司的发展，监管者应引导保险人及时披露信息，上市保险公司则应适时实施股价维护。 |
| 关键词: 保险股价 承保业绩 大盘指数 波动 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Empirical Study of the Relation among Operation Performance, Investors Mood and the Return of Insurance Stocks |
|
WU Xiang you
|
| Abstract: |
| This paper constructs individual and integral models reflecting the volatility of insurance stocks and analyzes the different roles of the operating performance and market mood in price volatility of insurance stocks. Empirical study shows that the prices of insurance stocks have auto regression character and do not largely deviate in short time, that the prices of insurance stocks and insurance performance change in reverse direction, which reflect the cycle character of insurance business, that the prices of insurance stocks change in the same direction of Shanghai Index and in the reverse direction of Shenzhen Index, which reflect the character of large capital insurance stocks, and that prices of insurance stocks are easily shocked by financial policies and are sensitive to systematic risks. Serious stock prices volatility affects the development of listed insurance companies, the regulators should guide the insurers in time to disclose the information, and the insurers should maintain the stock prices on time. |
| Key words: price of insurance stocks underwriting performance composite stock indexes volatility |
