| 摘要: |
| 利用1990—2009年进出口贸易总额月度数据，通过ARIMA模型外推得出2009年下半年对外贸易总额，结果显示下半年对外贸易萎缩速度将逐步趋缓，并在对此结果进行分析的基础上，提出了相应的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 国际贸易 进出口总额 ARIMA模型 |
| DOI： |
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| Analysis of the situation of foreign trade in the second half year of 2009 based on ARIMA model |
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SHI Xiaoxuan, HUANG Dayong
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| Abstract: |
| Based on monthly data of export trade total amount during 1990-2009, this paper uses ARIMA model to deduce foreign trade total amount in the second half year of 2009, the results show that the shrinking rate of foreign trade in this half year will slow down. The corresponding policy suggestions are made based on the analysis of these results. |
| Key words: international trade the total amount of import and export ARIMA model |
