基于二次分解和 BiLSTM 的多特征天然气负荷预测
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Multi-Feature Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on Secondary Decomposition and BiLSTM
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    摘要:

    目的 针对天然气负荷数据存在噪声多、规律性难以捕捉和特征冗余的典型特点,提出了一种基于二次分解 和双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)模型的多特征天然气负荷预测方法。 方法 首先,利用 RF 对特征进行重要性排序,筛选 出重要关联特征;其次,利用奇异谱分析(SSA)对原始数据进行分解重构,提取数据的趋势和周期信息并形成分量,分 离出高频分量,然后利用变分模态分解(VMD)对高频分量进行二次分解,形成各模态分量,并将各模态分量输入 BiLSTM 模型进行预测;最后融合各分量预测结果得到最终的负荷点预测结果。 结果 仿真实验表明:相比于其他传统 模型,所提的二次分解和组合模型预测效果更优,预测精度更高。 结论 新建模型具有良好的解释性与合理性,能有效 应用于天然气负荷预测,为决策者合理规划天然气供应计划提供可靠的理论依据和有效的技术支持。

    Abstract:

    Objective Aiming at the typical characteristics of natural gas load data such as noise difficulty in capturing regularity and feature redundancy a multi-feature natural gas load forecasting method based on secondary decomposition and bidirectional long short-term memory BiLSTM model is proposed. Methods First random forest RF was used to rank the importance of features and important associated features were screened out. Second singular spectrum analysis SSA was employed to decompose and reconstruct the original data extract the trend and periodic information of the data to form components and separate the high-frequency components. Then variational mode decomposition VMD was used to conduct secondary decomposition on the high-frequency components to generate individual modal components. These modal components were fed into the BiLSTM model for prediction. Finally the prediction results of each component were fused to obtain the final load point prediction result. Results Simulation results showed that compared with other traditional models the proposed secondary decomposition and combination model had a better prediction effect and higher prediction accuracy. Conclusion The newly built model has good interpretability and rationality and can be effectively applied to natural gas load forecasting providing a reliable theoretical basis and effective technical support for decisionmakers to reasonably make natural gas supply plans.

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张芷晨,邵必林.基于二次分解和 BiLSTM 的多特征天然气负荷预测[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2026,43(4):135-141
ZHANG Zhichen SHAO Bilin. Multi-Feature Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on Secondary Decomposition and BiLSTM[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2026,43(4):135-141

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-07
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