基于深度学习的中国黄金期货价格区间预测
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Interval Prediction of Chinese Gold Futures Prices Based on Deep Learning
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    摘要:

    :目的 为解决中国黄金期货价格由于固有的非线性、不稳定和高波动性特征而无法精确预测的问题,提出了 一个基于深度学习的区间预测模型,以更精确地描绘和预测黄金期货价格的变化趋势。 方法 首先,采用门控循环 单元(GRU)、长短期记忆(LSTM)和双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)3 种深度学习模型,分别通过核密度估计(KDE)和 分位数回归(QR)方法构建独立的区间预测模型;然后,基于这两种区间预测模型,进一步整合成一个组合预测模 型,以预测区间覆盖率作为约束条件,并利用网格搜索算法(GS)来优化模型权重配置,以确保预测区间的平均宽 度达到最小。 结果 实证分析显示:采用 BiLSTM 方法构建的组合区间预测模型在预测性能上显著优于其他基准模 型,在各种置信水平下,都显示出更广泛的预测覆盖率和更窄的区间平均宽度。 结论 所提出的区间预测组合模型 能够有效预测未来黄金期货价格的波动范围,为投资者提供更为可靠的风险评估和决策支持。

    Abstract:

    Objective To tackle the problem that the Chinese gold futures prices cannot be accurately predicted due to their inherent characteristics of non-linearity instability and high volatility an interval prediction model based on deep learning is proposed. This model aims to more precisely depict and forecast the changing trends of gold futures prices. Methods First three deep-learning models namely the gated recurrent unit GRU long short-term memory LSTM and bidirectional long short-term memory BiLSTM were employed. Independent interval prediction models were constructed using the kernel density estimation KDE and quantile regression QR methods respectively. Then based on these two types of interval prediction m co o n d d e i l t s io n a t c h o e m g b r i i n d ed sea p r r c e h d ic G t S io n a m lg o o d ri e th l m wa w s as fu u r s th e e d r to in o te p g ti r m at i e z d e . th T e a m ki o n d g el th w e ei p gh re t d c ic o t n i f o i n gur in at t i e o r n va t l o c m o i v n e i r m ag iz e e r t a h t e e a a v s era a ge co w n i s d t t r h ain o t f the prediction interval. Results Empirical analysis showed that the combined interval prediction model constructed using the BiLSTM method significantly outperformed other benchmark models in terms of prediction performance. At various confidence levels it exhibited a wider prediction coverage rate and a narrower average interval width. Conclusion The proposed combined interval prediction model can more effectively predict the future fluctuation range of gold futures prices providing more reliable risk assessment and decision-making support for investors.

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李雨涵,孙景云.基于深度学习的中国黄金期货价格区间预测[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2026,43(3):135-143
LI Yuhan SUN Jingyun . Interval Prediction of Chinese Gold Futures Prices Based on Deep Learning[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2026,43(3):135-143

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-19
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