基于多头注意力 CNN-LSTM 碳排放量预测研究
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Research on Carbon Emission Prediction Based on Multi-Head Attention CNN-LSTM
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    目的 由于碳排放具有不规律性和非线性的特点,针对如何提升碳排放量预测效果,提出一种基于多头注意 力 CNN-LSTM 的碳排放预测方法。 方法 基于 CNN 网络具有的空间特征提取优势和 LSTM 算法有效利用长、短期 时间的依赖关系,引入多头注意力机制以分配不同权重的方式,采用多头注意力机制引导下的 CNN-LSTM 模型对 我国碳排放量进行预测。 结果 对过去 1 724 d 碳排放量的数据集进行训练和预测,发现测试集的 RMSE、MASE、 MAPE 指标数值分别为 0. 080 2、 0. 302 0、0. 105 7;与 BP 神经网络算法、ARIMA(2,1,4)、GM(1,1)进行对比,可以 明显看出设计的模型在 3 种评价指标方面均优于其余预测算法。 结论 采用基于多头注意力的 CNN-LSTM 碳排放 预测方法能够有效提高预测精确度,适用于时间序列预测。

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    Objective Due to the irregularity and nonlinearity of carbon emissions this study proposes a carbon emission prediction method based on multi-head attention CNN-LSTM to enhance the accuracy of carbon emission predictions. Methods Leveraging the spatial feature extraction capabilities of CNN networks and the effective utilization of long-term and short-term dependencies by the LSTM algorithm a multi-head attention mechanism was introduced to allocate different weights. A CNN-LSTM model guided by the multi-head attention mechanism was employed to predict carbon emissions in China. Results The research selected a dataset of China?? s carbon emissions over the past 1 724 days and used the model proposed in the paper to conduct training and prediction on this dataset. After testing the values of the RMSE MASE and MAPE of the model on the test set were 0. 080 2 0. 302 0 and 0. 105 7 respectively. Comparing with the BP neural network algorithm ARIMA 2 1 4 and GM 1 1 the model designed in the paper outperformed the other prediction algorithms in terms of these three evaluation indicators. Conclusion The carbon emission prediction method based on multi-head attention CNN-LSTM can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and is suitable for time series prediction.

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仵晓聪a,冯 鑫a,蒋 豪b.基于多头注意力 CNN-LSTM 碳排放量预测研究[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2026,43(3):116-124
WU Xiaoconga FENG Xina JIANG Haob. Research on Carbon Emission Prediction Based on Multi-Head Attention CNN-LSTM[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2026,43(3):116-124

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-19
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