多波段 Richards 模型及其数据拟合分析
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Multi-band Richards Model and Its Data Fitting Analysis
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    摘要:

    目的 在传染病传播的过程中,往往会经过反复感染,出现传播多次高峰。 基于这个特点,提出了一种多波 段 Richards 模型,对传染病的感染人数进行数值模拟。 方法 利用多波段 Richards 模型结合最小二乘法对西太平洋 区域的累计感染病例进行拟合,得到感染率、拐点、最终感染人数等参数估计值并判断其是否收敛,从而确定传染 病传播的波段数以及每个波段的拐点日期。 结果 结果表明:西太平洋区域在 2020-01-04—2020-09-13 暴发的传 染病分为 3 个波段,其中 03-15 和 07-04 为分割 3 个波段的两个拐点,由第一波段求得的基本再生数约为 8. 53,说 明这次传染病的传播能力很强。 结论 借助多波段 Richards 模型可以有效拟合多波段传染病的感染情况,能够确定 传染病在多阶段暴发中的关键转折点,以及预测未来一段时间的感染规模,为制定传染病防控措施提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective In the process of infectious disease transmission it tends to go through repeated infections with multiple transmission peaks. Based on this characteristic a multi - band Richards model was proposed to numerically simulate the number of infected people of infectious diseases. Methods The multi-band Richards model was used in conjunction with the least squares method to fit the cumulative infection cases in the Western Pacific region. Estimated values of parameters including infection rate inflection point and final number of infections were obtained and convergence was evaluated to determine the number of bands and the inflection dates for each band in the spread of the disease. Results The results showed that the infectious disease outbreak in the Western Pacific region from January 4th 2020 to September 13th 2020 was divided into 3 bands with the inflection points on March 15th and July 4th separating the three bands. The basic reproduction number obtained from the first band was about 8. 53 indicating a strong transmission capacity of the disease. Conclusion With the help of the multi-band Richards model the infection of multi- band infectious diseases can be effectively fitted and the key turning points of infectious diseases in multistage outbreaks can be identified as well as the scale of infections in the coming period can be predicted which can provide a reference for the development of preventive and control measures for infectious diseases.

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张 悦,彭源源,杨志春.多波段 Richards 模型及其数据拟合分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2024,(6):94-98
ZHANG Yue PENG Yuanyuan YANG Zhichun. Multi-band Richards Model and Its Data Fitting Analysis[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2024,(6):94-98

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-11
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