一类 SEIR-A 与 TCN 混合传染病模型的研究
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    摘要:

    目的 由于传染病的不断复杂化,一类传播过程中出现大量隐性感染人群的疾病逐渐流行,提出一种基于 SEIR 模型改进后的 SEIR-A 模型来更加准确地刻画该类疾病的传播机制。 方法 在动力学模型方面,主要有以下两 点改进:一是假设潜伏期人群和显性感染人群具有一致的传染因子;二是引入具有不同传染性的隐性感染人群 A, 且增添隐性感染者向显性感染者单向转换的常值因子 ω,构建一类具有特殊隐性感染人群的 SEIR-A 模型。 此外, 将改进后的 SEIR-A 模型与时间卷积网络 TCN 模型线性结合,得到一种动力学模型和深度学习模型相互融合的混 合模型。 结果 通过真实数据的拟合,结果表明:SEIR-A 模型可以模拟传染病的总体趋势,且能够对该疾病中现存 隐性感染人群和累计恢复人群做出准确拟合,决定系数 R2 分别达到 0. 987 0 和 0. 989 9,证明该模型合理;SEIR-A 与 TCN 的混合模型可以实现对复杂现存显性感染人群的拟合,相较于单一的 SEIR-A 模型、TCN 和 LSTM 模型,该 混合模型的决定系数 R2 达到了 0. 961 1,取得了 5 种对比模型中最优的拟合精度。 结论 传统动力学和深度学习的 结合,可以在体现疾病传播机理的同时有效解决传统模型拟合精度不高的问题,对传染病研究具有现实意义。

    Abstract:

    Objective A modified SEIR-A model based on the SEIR model was proposed to describe the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases more accurately in view of the increasing complexity of infectious diseases and the gradual prevalence of a kind of diseases with a large number of latent infections in the process of transmission. Methods In terms of the kinetic model there were two main improvements. One was to assume that the incubation period population and the dominant infected population had the same infectious factors the other was to introduce a recessive infection population A with different infectiousness and add a constant factor ω for one-way conversion from recessive infection to dominant infection so as to construct an SEIR-A model of a special recessive infection population. In addition the improved SEIR-A model was linearly combined with the TCN model of time convolution network and a hybrid model with the fusion of dynamic model and deep learning model was obtained. Results Through the fitting of real data the results showed that the SEIR-A model could simulate the general trend of infectious diseases and could accurately fit the existing recessive infected population and the accumulated recovered population in the disease and the determination coefficient R2 reached 0. 987 0 and 0. 989 9 respectively proving that the model was reasonable. The hybrid model of SEIR-A and TCN can fit the complex existing dominant infected population. Compared with the single SEIR-A model TCN model and LSTM model the determination coefficient R2 of the hybrid model reached 0. 9611 obtaining the best fitting accuracy among the five comparative models. Conclusion The combination of traditional dynamics and deep learning can effectively solve the problem of low fitting accuracy of traditional models while embodying the mechanism of disease transmission which has practical significance for the study of infectious diseases.

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李 季,乔 敏,邹黎敏.一类 SEIR-A 与 TCN 混合传染病模型的研究[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2023,40(6):83-92
LI Ji, QIAO Min, ZOU Limin.[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2023,40(6):83-92

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-10
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2023年《重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版)》影响因子稳步提升