基于区间灰数预测模型的天猫“双十一”物流需求量预测
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Prediction of Tmall Double Eleven Logistics Demand Based on Interval Grey Number Prediction Model
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    摘要:

    基于天猫“双十一”包裹量增长呈“S"形和连续动态变化的特性,对“双十一”包裹量进行预测;首先将天猫历年“双十一”包裹量划分成几个连续区间,然后通过信息分解法对连续区间灰数进行白化处理,将区间灰数分解成白部序列和灰部序列,最后建立基于信息分解的连续区间灰数离散Verhulst预测模型;经误差检验分析,该模型预测结果精度较高,可以作为天猫平台第三方物流企业对物流资源进行合理、有效调配的依据。

    Abstract:

    Based on the characteristics of “S” and continuous dynamic changes in the growth of Tmall double eleven parcels,the amount of double eleven parcels is predicted First of all,Tmall double eleven package volume is divided into several continuous interval; then the continuous interval grey number is whitened by information decomposition method,and the interval grey number is divided into white and grey of part sequence;finally continuous interval grey number decomposition of discrete Verhulst prediction model is established to forecast the shortterm Tmall double eleven logistics demand The error analysis shows that the prediction accuracy of the model is relatively high,which can be used as a basis for rational and effective allocation of logistics resources on the third party logistics enterprises of Tmall platform

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赵雪琴, 张军.基于区间灰数预测模型的天猫“双十一”物流需求量预测[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2018,35(6):40-45
ZHAO Xueqin, ZHANG Jun. Prediction of Tmall Double Eleven Logistics Demand Based on Interval Grey Number Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2018,35(6):40-45

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-11-19
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