基于Logistic模型的安徽省城镇化演进碳增量效应预测与分析
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Prediction and Analysis on Carbon Incremental Effect inAnhui Urbanization Evolution Based on Logistic Model
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    摘要:

    基于Logistic模型,采用曲线回归分析方法,对安徽省未来城镇化发展水平进行了预测;运用STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法,对城镇化过程的边际碳排放效应进行了测度;依据城镇化发展趋势及城镇化演进的碳排放效应,对安徽省未来城镇化演进的碳增量进行了测算,结果表明:2020,2030年,安徽省城镇化水平将分别达到57.02%,64.41%;城镇化演进对碳排放的弹性系数为0.080 2;2012—2020年,城镇化进程引致的碳增量为200.3万t,平均每年增加22.26万t,2020—2030年,引

    Abstract:

    Based on Logistic model, curvilinear regression analysis method is used to predict future urbanization level of Anhui Province; STIRPAT model is applied with partial least squares regression analysis method to measure the marginal carbon emission effects of the urbanization process; based on urbanization development trends and carbon emission effects of urbanization evolution, the carbon increment of future urbanization evolution in Anhui Province is calculated. The results show that: ① The urbanization level of Anhui Province will reach 57.02% and 64.41% in 2020 and 2030 respectively; ② The elastic coefficient of urbanization evolution on carbon emissions is 0.0802; ③ In 2012-2020, the carbon increment induced by urbanization will be 2,003,000 t with an average annual increase of 222,600 t; In 2020-2030, the resulting carbon increment will be 1,019,700 t with an average annual increase of 102,000 t. These research results can provide a reference not only for Anhui provincial government to formulate the urbanization development planning and carbon emission reduction policies, but also for similar studies.

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张乐勤,许信旺,许杨.基于Logistic模型的安徽省城镇化演进碳增量效应预测与分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2015,32(5):80-88
ZHANG Leqin, XU Xinwang, XU Yang. Prediction and Analysis on Carbon Incremental Effect inAnhui Urbanization Evolution Based on Logistic Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2015,32(5):80-88

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