Based on Logistic model, curvilinear regression analysis method is used to predict future urbanization level of Anhui Province; STIRPAT model is applied with partial least squares regression analysis method to measure the marginal carbon emission effects of the urbanization process; based on urbanization development trends and carbon emission effects of urbanization evolution, the carbon increment of future urbanization evolution in Anhui Province is calculated. The results show that: ① The urbanization level of Anhui Province will reach 57.02% and 64.41% in 2020 and 2030 respectively; ② The elastic coefficient of urbanization evolution on carbon emissions is 0.0802; ③ In 2012-2020, the carbon increment induced by urbanization will be 2,003,000 t with an average annual increase of 222,600 t; In 2020-2030, the resulting carbon increment will be 1,019,700 t with an average annual increase of 102,000 t. These research results can provide a reference not only for Anhui provincial government to formulate the urbanization development planning and carbon emission reduction policies, but also for similar studies.