More and more uncertain factors make it difficult for investment enterprises to make quick decisions and seize the best investment opportunity to obtain the maximum revenue. Aiming at this problem, this paper assumes that both the project’s investment cost and output price are not only uncertain but also affected by shocks, establishes a real option model under which uncertain factors follow the jump-diffusion processes, solves the optimal investment threshold and the optimal investment option value, as well as analyzes the impact of the most relevant parameters on the optimal investment threshold. Based on the assumption that the uncertain factors are independent of each other in the previous literature, we relax the assumption of the statistical independence between the the volatility of two uncertain factors.In the framework of the hypothesis of random distribution of jump amplitude,this paper uses the three statistical characteristic parameters, namely, mean value, volatility and skewness, to describe the shocks and generalize the comparative static results. The results show that, the greater the volatility correlation between the investment cost and the output price, the smaller the investment threshold, and the firm’s corresponding optimal investment strategy is to accelerate the execution of investment options. Moreover, the influence of random volatility of investment cost and output price on investment threshold is not only related to itself, but also depends on the relationship between their relative volatility and correlation, meanwhile, the main factors that cause the fluctuation of investment threshold are the mean and skewness of jump amplitude rather than the standard deviation. Therefore, the firms should focus on the nature and influence direction of shocks before making investment strategies.
刘彦云, 胡支军.跳跃扩散过程下企业的最优投资策略[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2021,38(4):73-83 LIU Yan-yun, HU Zhi-jun. Optimal Investment Strategy under Jump-diffusion Processes[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition),2021,38(4):73-83