Abstract:In this paper,we mainly introduced the Hamilton model and the transfer function model to illustrate the application of Bayesian model to the financial guarantee insurance.It treats the parameters of the model as random variables with a prior distribution,then figures out the posterior distribution accoding to Bayesian theorem.And then based on this,the model parameters are estimated by using the WinBUGS software.At last,the pure premium and the required amount of risk capital are predicted.