| 摘要: |
| 针对“双碳”目标下各省市面临的减碳压力,利用 Tapio 脱钩指数分析法、LMDI 模型,结合重庆市经济发展数据和碳排放数据,分析碳排放的影响因素并预测其达峰情况。 研究结果表明:总体来看,重庆市近 15 年来碳排放量有所升高,但年度碳排放量仅占全国同期的 1% ~ 2%;从煤、油、气、电四大能源行业的碳排放量占比结构看,煤电的碳排放占比明显下降,油、气的碳排放占比显著上升;重庆市经济增长与二氧化碳脱钩情况较好,一直处于扩张相对脱钩状态;重庆市碳排放量主要受城市化、人口增长、经济增长三大因素的影响;根据预测结果,基准情景下,重庆市碳排放将在 2034 年达到峰值,峰值在 2. 06 亿t 左右,达峰情景模式下,预计将在 2029 年达峰,碳排放峰值约为 1. 85 亿t,比传统模式下少 0. 21 亿t。 最后,为重庆市绿色发展提出了优化产业结构、构建清洁低碳、高效多元的能源体系、加速绿色工业、绿色交通、技术创新等对策建议,对各地制定实现“双碳”目标的具体措施具有一定借鉴意义和参考价值。 |
| 关键词: “双碳”目标 Tapio 脱钩指数 LMDI 模型 碳排放预测 |
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| Research on the Influencing Factors and Forecasting of Carbon Emissions in Chongqing under the “ Double Carbon” Target |
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CHEN Huan1,2, MU Ying3
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1. Engineering Research Center of Waste Oil Recovery Technology and Equipment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing
Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
2. School of Accounting, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
3. Chongqing Resources and Environment Trading Center, Chongqing 401120, China
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| Abstract: |
| In view of the carbon reduction pressure faced by provinces and cities under the “ double carbon” target, a forecasting method for peaking carbon emissions was proposed. Using Tapio decoupling index analysis method and the LMDI model, combined with Chongqing’s economic development data and carbon emission data, the influencing factors of carbon emission were analyzed and the peak situation was predicted. The results show that: overall, the carbon emissions in Chongqing had increased in the past 15 years, but the annual carbon emissions only accounted for 1% ~ 2% of the national carbon emissions in the same period; from the perspective of the proportion of carbon emissions in the four major energy industries of coal, oil, gas, and electricity, the proportion of carbon emissions from coal and electricity declined significantly, and the proportion of carbon emission from oil and gas increased significantly; the decoupling of economic growth and carbon dioxide in Chongqing was relatively good, and it has been in a state of relative decoupling of expansion;
Chongqing’s carbon emissions are mainly affected by urbanization, population growth and economic growth; according to the forecast results, under the benchmark scenario, Chongqing’s carbon emissions will peak at 206 million tons in 2034, and in the peak scenario mode, in 2029, the peak carbon emissions will peak at 185 million tons, 21 million tons less than the traditional model. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the green development of Chongqing, such as optimizing the industrial structure, building a clean, low-carbon, efficient and diversified energy system, and accelerating green industry, green transportation and technological innovation. It has certain reference significance and reference value for all regions to make specific measures to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. |
| Key words: “double carbon” target Tapio decoupling index LMDI model carbon emission forecast |
