| 摘要: |
| 基础设施与经济增长具有动态互促互进的理论关联，但对于外部援助下的贫困地区发展而言，二者关系具有现实特殊性；三峡库区既有历史贫困特征，又受到外部援助资金的大力支持，运用面板向量自回归模型对库区15个区县2000—2018年的基础设施和经济增长进行了实证分析；研究结果发现：三峡库区基础设施对经济增长具有动态促进作用，反之则不显著，二者具有单向互动关系，在脉冲响应分析中，二者互动效应呈现“倒U型”特征，时滞效应呈现“反J型”特征；现阶段，三峡库区基础设施与经济增长互动效应还不明显，在一系列帮扶政策收官期限之前，建议从两方面来增强基础设施与经济增长的内生互动，一是要明确各类帮扶政策分类分阶段有序退出的时间表，二是以区县为主体共建三峡库区基础设施发展基金。 |
| 关键词: 基础设施 经济增长 面板向量自回归 |
| DOI： |
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| The Interactive Effect of Infrastructure Construction and Economic Growth in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Panel Vector Autoregressive Model |
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DING Huang-yan, HUANG Liao
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School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
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| Abstract: |
| Infrastructure construction and economic growth are dynamically interactively theoretically correlated, however, for the poor area under external assistance, the relationship between the two has actuality and specialty. Three Gorges Reservoir Area has historic poverty feature but is largely supported by external funds. The empirical analysis is conducted on infrastructure construction and economic growth in 15 counties in Three Gorges Reservoir Area during 2000-2018 by using panel vector autoregressive model and the results show that the infrastructure construction in Three Gorges Reservoir Area has dynamically boosting effect on economic growth, while on the contrary, it is not obvious, the two have unidirectional interactive relationship. In impulsive response analysis, the interactive effect of the two demonstrates “inverted-U type” feature, and the time lag effect of the two shows “reverse-J type” feature. In present stage, the interactive effect of infrastructure construction and economic growth in Three Gorges Reservoir Area is not significant. Before the termination of a series of assistance policies, this paper suggests to increase endogenous interaction between infrastructure construction and economic growth in the Area from two perspectives, on the one hand, the timetable for the exit of all kinds of assistance policies in different stages in order should be clarified, on the other hand, the infrastructure construction funds should be jointly developed by all counties and districts in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. |
| Key words: infrastructure economic growth panel vector auto-regression |
