XIA Li-li, SU Hua.Comprehensive Assessment of Wind Speed in Mountainous Areas of Yunnan Based on Several Distributions[J].Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Natural Science Edition）,2020,37(6):48-55

Comprehensive Assessment of Wind Speed in Mountainous Areas of Yunnan Based on Several Distributions

DOI：

 作者 单位 夏丽丽, 苏华 1.西南交通大学 数学学院，成都 610031；2.四川航天长征装备制造有限公司，成都 610199

风速分布的准确评估在风能估算中起着十分重要的作用，选择合适的概率密度函数可以减小风能的估算误差。为了确定最适合云南山区风速数据的概率分布，提出使用多种常规分布进行建模；采用极大似然理论进行参数估计，提出一个综合评估准则，包括决定系数R2、Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验、卡方检验、均方根误差（RMSE）和贝叶斯信息准则（BIC）用于拟合优度检验，直方图和QQ图用于直观分析，与标准空气密度下风功率密度的相对误差用于比较。结果显示：威布尔分布对于云南山区的风速数据拟合效果最好，这也为下一步对云南山区风能的准确评估打好了基础。

The accurate assessment of the wind speed distribution plays an important role in wind power estimation. The appropriate probability density function is chosen to reduce the estimation error of wind energy for accurate assessment of wind speed and wind energy in Yunnan mountainous areas, in order to determine most suitable distribution for wind speed data in mountainous areas of Yunnan, a variety of conventional distributions have been proposed for modelling. The maximum likelihood theory is used for parameter estimation. A comprehensive evaluation criterion is proposed, including five statistical determination coefficients R2, Kolmogorov Smirnov test, chi square test, root mean square error (RMSE) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for goodness of fit test, Histograms and QQ plots are used for intuitive analysis, and the relative errors in wind power density are used for comparison. The results show that the Weibull distribution fits the wind speed in the mountainous areas of Yunnan best. This conclusion provides the basis for next accurate assessment of wind energy in mountainous areas of Yunnan.