| 摘要: |
| 针对重庆水资源的安全利用，建立重庆水资源安全系统动力学模型，设计5种不同情景，预测了2006—2030年重庆水资源安全在不同方案下发展状态；结果表明：保持现行发展模式不变，不加以任何改进，不利于重庆水资源的安全利用；仅通过节能减排或者降低工农业用水与中水回用都不能使水资源安全利用得到有效改善；只有加强环保力度，在治污减排的同时，改进工业工艺与产业结构，推进农业现代化，加强点源污染控制，才能有效提高重庆水资源安全，促进地区经济、社会和环境的协调发展。 |
| 关键词: 重庆 水资源安全 系统动力学 模拟与预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
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| Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Water Resources Security in Chongqing |
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LIU Li ying1，2， HUANG Xiao yong3，YANG Rong ting3，
GUAN Dong jie3，4
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| Abstract: |
| In order to discuss the change of water resources security in Chongqing， a system dynamics model of Chongqing water resources security was established. Five different scenarios were designed to predict the development of Chongqing water resources security from 2006 to 2030. The results show that keeping the current development mode unchanged and not improving it is not conducive to the safe utilization of water resources in Chongqing. Just saving energy and emission reduction or reducing water use for industry and agriculture can not effectively improve the utilization of water resources. Only by strengthening environmental protection，and pollution abatement， improving industrial techndogy and industrial structure， promoting agricultural modernization， and strengthening point source pollution control can we improve the safety of water resources in Chongqing effectively and promote the coordinated development of economy， society and environment. |
| Key words: Chongqing water resources security system dynamics simulation and prediction |
