| 引用本文: | 刘锋1, 何卓1, 谭祥勇2.Richards模型与Logistic模型在人口预测中的比较(J/M/D/N,J:杂志，M：书，D：论文，N：报纸).期刊名称,2017，34（1）：6-9 |
| CHEN X. Adap tive slidingmode contr ol for discrete2ti me multi2inputmulti2 out put systems[ J ]. Aut omatica, 2006, 42(6): 4272-435 |
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| 摘要: |
| Logistic模型是常用的人口预测模型，在Logistic模型的基础上再添加一个参数，得到一个含有4个参数的非线性s型增长模型，即Richards模型；分别通过Logistic模型和Richards模型对1985—2014年的中国人口进行了预测，建立了人口预测模型；通过与实际人口相比，结果表明，Richards模型比Logistic模型拟合效果更好。 |
| 关键词: Logistic模型 Richards模型 人口预测 非线性 |
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| Comparison of Richards Model and Logistic Model in Population Prediction |
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LIU Feng1, HE Zhuo1, TAN Xiang yong2
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| Abstract: |
| Logistic model is a commonly used population prediction model, and a nonlinear s type growth model containing four parameters, Richards model, is obtained by adding a parameter to Logistic model. Chinese population during 1985—2014 is predicted by Logistic model and Richards model respectively, and the population prediction model is constructed. By comparing with the real population, the results show that Richards model is better than Logistic model in fitting effect. |
| Key words: Logistic model Richards model population prediction nonlinearity |
