| 引用本文: | 曾冬玲1, 喻科2, 赵清俊3.基于灰色理论和马尔科夫修正的旅游需求预测——以云南省旅游市场为例(J/M/D/N,J:杂志，M：书，D：论文，N：报纸).期刊名称,2016，33（4）：58-68 |
| CHEN X. Adap tive slidingmode contr ol for discrete2ti me multi2inputmulti2 out put systems[ J ]. Aut omatica, 2006, 42(6): 4272-435 |
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| 摘要: |
| 基于灰色模型，以云南省旅游市场为例，对未来进行了短期定量预测，并在此基础上进行了马尔科夫修正；经过模型的运算和多重检验过程，得出了未来三年国内、海外和总市场需求的预测值，并发现，未来三年云南省的旅游总需求将强势回暖，并保持稳定增长态势；海外需求在2015年迎来爆发式增长，之后又出现回落并趋于平稳；国内游客所占的比重将越来越大，而海外游客所占的比重将越来越小；根据这些结果，提出了相应的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 灰色理论 Markov修正 旅游预测 |
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| Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on Grey System Theory and Markov Adjustment ——Taking Yunnan Tourism Market as an Example |
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ZENG Dong ling1, YU Ke2, ZHAO Qing jun3
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| Abstract: |
| This paper uses grey model, takes Yunnan tourism market as an example, quantitatively makes short term forecasting and then makes Markov adjustment. By operation and multiple test, this paper obtains the forecasting value of internal, external and overseas total tourism market demand in the coming three years, finds that in the coming three years, the total demand of Yunnan tourism will increase and will keep steadily growth, that overseas demand will usher a dramatic rise in 2015, then decline and become stable, and that the proportion of the domestic tourists will become bigger and bigger, however, the proportion of the overseas tourists will become smaller and smaller. According to these results, the corresponding policies and suggestions are pointed out. |
| Key words: grey system theory Markov adjustment tourism demand forecasting |
