| 摘要: |
| 根据碳排放的演化规律，采用ARIMA模型与BP神经网络集成的组合模型，对中国碳排放量进行预测研究；取1980—2007年中国碳排放量作为训练样本，确定模型参数；然后取2008—2013年中国碳排放量作为测试样本对文中的组合模型进行验证，并与已有文献所建立的预测模型进行比较，结果显示，此处所建立的组合模型预测误差极小；最后,根据组合模型对2014—2020年中国碳排放量进行预测，指出中国还将继续面临碳减排压力。 |
| 关键词: ARIMA模型 BP神经网络 碳排放 组合模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Prediction of Carbon Emission Quantity of China Based on Combined Model |
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XIAO Zhi hong, WANG Ming hao
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| Abstract: |
| According to evolution law of carbon emission, by using the combined model from ARIMA Model and BP neural network integration, this paper studies the prediction of carbon emission quantity of China. By taking carbon emission quantity of China during 1980 2007 as training sample, the model parameters are made, then the combined model in this paper is tested by taking the carbon emission quantity of China during 2008 2013 as testing sample and the model is compared with the prediction model established in the existed references. The result shows that the deviation is relatively small by using the combined model constructed in this paper, and finally 2014—2020 carbon emission quantity of China is predicted based on the combined model and the predicted result show that carbon emission quantity of China will continue to face reduction pressure. |
| Key words: ARIMA Model BP neural network carbon emission combined model |
