| 摘要: |
| 能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础，对经济的快速发展和人们生活水平的大幅度提高起着无可取代的作用，随着经济的发展人们对能源的需求日益增多，由于地球上的资源是有限的，对未来能源消耗量的准确预测显得尤为重要;运用ARIMA模型对《2013重庆市统计年鉴》中重庆市1981-2012年能源消耗量数据进行分析，结果显示:ARIMA（2，3，2）模型预测未来的结果较为准确，为重庆市资源消耗量提供了可靠的依据。 |
| 关键词: ARIMA模型 时间序列 能源消耗 预测 |
| DOI： |
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| Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of EnergyConsumption of Chongqing |
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LI Yan yan
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| Abstract: |
| Resource is important basic material for human survival and development. It plays an irreplaceable role in the rapid development of economy and greatly improving people's living standards. With the development of economy, people's demand for energy is increasing, because the resources are limited on earth, therefore, it is particularly important to accurately predict future energy consumption. This paper uses ARIMA model to analyze 1981 2012 annual energy consumption data of Chongqing based on 〖WTBX〗Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2013〖WTBZ〗. The result shows that the predict of future energy consumption by ARIMA (2,3,2) model is more accurate, which provides reliable basis for resource consumption of Chongqing. |
| Key words: ARIMA model time series energy consumption prediction |
