| 摘要: |
| 随着经济的快速发展，第三产业的产值对经济的促进作用越发显得举足轻重，采取自回归求积移动平均法（ARIMA）模型在重庆市2013统计年鉴分析的基础上对第三产业的总值进行了ARIMA建模并进行预测，结果显示，ARIMA（1,2,2）模型对重庆第三产业产值提供了较为准确的预测结果，有较好的拟合程度，可用于未来的预测. |
| 关键词: 第三产业产值 ARIMA 预测 |
| DOI： |
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| The Forecasting for the Output of the Tertiary industry in Chongqing based on ARIMA Modeling |
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XU Hao1, LIU Yu qin2
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| Abstract: |
| With the rapid development of the economy, the role of the tertiary industry’s output becomes more and more important to the development of economy. With ARIMA modeling, this paper forecasts the output of the tertiary industry of Chongqing, based on the 2013 Chongqing statistical yearbook. The results implies that ARIMA(1,2,2) provides the accurate result and has good fitting degree, so it can be used to predict the future. Therefore, it can provide reliable theoretical support for the prediction for the output of the tertiary industry of Chongqing. |
| Key words: output of the tertiary industry ARIMA forecast |
