| 摘要: |
| 基于Logistic模型，采用曲线回归分析方法，对安徽省未来城镇化发展水平进行了预测；运用STIRPAT模型，采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法，对城镇化过程的边际碳排放效应进行了测度；依据城镇化发展趋势及城镇化演进的碳排放效应，对安徽省未来城镇化演进的碳增量进行了测算，结果表明：2020,2030年，安徽省城镇化水平将分别达到57.02%,64.41%；城镇化演进对碳排放的弹性系数为0.080 2；2012—2020年，城镇化进程引致的碳增量为200.3万t，平均每年增加22.26万t，2020—2030年，引 |
| 关键词: 城镇化演进 碳增量 预测 Logistic模型 安徽省 |
| DOI： |
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| Prediction and Analysis on Carbon Incremental Effect in Anhui Urbanization Evolution Based on Logistic Model |
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ZHANG Le qin1, XU Xin wang1, XU Yang2
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| Abstract: |
| Based on Logistic model, curvilinear regression analysis method is used to predict future urbanization level of Anhui Province; STIRPAT model is applied with partial least squares regression analysis method to measure the marginal carbon emission effects of the urbanization process; based on urbanization development trends and carbon emission effects of urbanization evolution, the carbon increment of future urbanization evolution in Anhui Province is calculated. The results show that: ① The urbanization level of Anhui Province will reach 57.02% and 64.41% in 2020 and 2030 respectively; ② The elastic coefficient of urbanization evolution on carbon emissions is 0.0802; ③ In 2012-2020, the carbon increment induced by urbanization will be 2,003,000 t with an average annual increase of 222,600 t; In 2020-2030, the resulting carbon increment will be 1,019,700 t with an average annual increase of 102,000 t. These research results can provide a reference not only for Anhui provincial government to formulate the urbanization development planning and carbon emission reduction policies, but also for similar studies. |
| Key words: urbanization evolution carbon increment prediction Logistic model Anhui Province |
