|
| 摘要: |
| 针对目前我国公路项目后评价中社会经济效益难以定量的问题，运用GM(1，1)模型对有、无公路项目的社会经济效益进行模拟预测，二者预测值之间的差值即可近似估计为公路建设所带来的社会经济效益；以渝合高速公路为例，对公路沿线区域的国内生产总值进行模拟预测，最终表明渝合高速公路的建设为沿线社会经济发展带来了明显的变化。 |
| 关键词: 社会经济效益 GM(1，1)模型 公路项目 灰色预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Quantitative Research on Socioeconomic Benefit of Highway Projects by Using GM(1,1) Model |
|
PAN Shao-ping, WU Ying-yong, GUO Tai-yong
|
| Abstract: |
| Because of difficult quantification on socioeconomic benefit in China’s highway project post evaluation, GM(1,1) Model is used to simulate and predicate socioeconomic benefit for an unit with a highway project or without a highway project, the difference of predicative values between the two can approximately estimate the socioeconomic benefit resulted from a highway project. Taking Yuhe Highway as an example, this paper simulates and predicates GDP of the units along the Highway and the results show that Yuhe Highway construction brings obvious change of socioeconomic development of the units along the Highway. |
| Key words: socioeconomic benefit GM(1,1) Model highway project grey predication |
