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| 摘要: |
| 根据我国化工园区事故统计数据,运用灰色系统理论建立我国化工事故数和伤亡人数的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型;通过关联度检验,结果表明:模型的预测精度良好;用模型对我国化工园区的安全状况进行预测,得出事故发生数以及伤亡人数的预测值,并做出了变化曲线,表明我国化工事故数及伤亡人数呈上升的趋势;经分析,这主要是由于近几年我国大量兴建化工园区,而园区规划不完善、安全投入不足以及监管力量薄弱等原因导致的。 |
| 关键词: 灰色理论 GM（1 1）预测模型 预测分析 |
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| Application of Gray Theory to Accident Predication in China s Chemical Engineering Zone |
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ZENG Xiao-hong; BI Hai-pu; GAN Yuan-qing
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| Abstract: |
| According to accident statistical data in China s chemical engineering zone,gray theory is used to set up GM(1,1) Gray Predication Model of the number of accidents and casualties of China s chemical engineering.By association degree test,the results show that this model has good predication accuracy.This model is used to predict the safety status of China s chemical engineering zone,the predication value of the number of accidents and casualties is obtained,and the change curve is devised,which reveal that ... |
| Key words: gray theory GM（1 1） Predication Model predication analysis |
