气候风险冲击下地方性商业银行的真实盈余管理
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Real Earnings Management of Local Commercial Banks Under Climate Risk Shocks
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    摘要:

    随着全球气候变化加剧,气候风险已成为威胁金融机构稳健经营的重要外部冲击,厘清气候风险冲击与银行盈余管理行为之间的内在联系具有重要意义。采用2010—2023年我国167家地方性商业银行的数据分析发现:气候风险冲击显著加剧了地方性商业银行的向上真实盈余管理,该作用对气候风险暴露水平较高地区、对地方依赖程度较高、流动性紧张的地方性商业银行显著,而对气候风险暴露水平较低地区、对地方依赖程度较低、流动性充足的地方性商业银行不显著;提高被动和主动风险承担水平是气候风险冲击诱发地方性商业银行向上真实盈余管理的重要机制,银行气候风险信息披露水平和地区灾害保障水平的提升会弱化气候风险冲击对地方性商业银行向上真实盈余管理的促进作用;气候转型风险加剧会强化气候物理风险冲击的真实盈余管理促进作用,应对气候风险冲击的向上真实盈余管理会加剧地方性商业银行的未来利润波动。上述结论为完善气候金融风险监管框架、提升银行气候韧性提供了政策启示。

    Abstract:

    With the increasing severity of climate change and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, climate risk has gradually become a significant threat to financial stability. In the context of building a sound financial stability guarantee system to prevent systemic risks, examining the impact of climate risk on bank operations is crucial for understanding how financial institutions respond to climate-related risks. However, existing literature largely analyzes the impact of climate risk from macroeconomic or corporate perspectives, with relatively limited attention paid to the banking sector. In particular, few studies examine earnings management behavior from the perspective of banks’ internal operational decisions. This study focuses on local commercial banks. It constructs a climate physical risk index using meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and combines this index with micro-financial data from the CSMAR database to create panel data. Using a two-way fixed-effects regression model, it systematically analyzes the impact of climate physical risk on banks’ real earnings management behavior. Empirical findings reveal that climate physical risk significantly promotes upward real earnings management in local commercial banks. Specifically, when facing climate risk shocks, banks tend to improve their current financial performance by adjusting real operating activities to increase profits. Mechanism analysis shows that climate risk strengthens management’s motivation to engage in real earnings management by increasing banks’ risk-taking level. Comprehensive information disclosure and sound disaster resilience can, to some extent, curb banks’ short-term opportunistic behavior. Further analysis reveals that the superposition of physical and transition risks further promotes banks’ real earnings management behavior. While this behavior improves financial performance in the short term, it can cause significant short-term fluctuations in future bank profits. Finally, banks’ risk exposure, local dependence, and liquidity all exhibit heterogeneous effects. Compared with existing research, this paper makes two contributions. First, it explores the theoretical mechanism by which climate risk affects banks’ real earnings management behavior, thereby contributing to the existing literature on the impact of climate risk on banks from a new perspective. Second, unlike existing studies that focus on accrual-based earnings management, this paper attempts to reveal the “black box” of real earnings management by local commercial banks. It examines the economic consequences of this behavior and how different bank characteristics moderate its effects, thereby providing a more comprehensive understanding of the internal logic of bank earnings management behavior. This research enriches the micro-perspective of existing climate studies and addresses the contemporary challenge of preventing and mitigating major risks during the high-quality development stage. It also has important implications for understanding bank operations under climate risk. First, it helps regulators identify potential hidden earnings manipulation by banks in the context of climate change, providing empirical evidence for improving climate finance regulatory frameworks. Second, it offers guidance for banks to optimize their risk management and information disclosure mechanisms, thereby enhancing the financial system’s resilience to climate risk shocks and promoting the sound operation of the financial system.

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朱沙,张家源,夏誉凤.气候风险冲击下地方性商业银行的真实盈余管理[J].西部论坛,2026,36(3):92-109

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-25